## Baseline Values and an Aside on Probabilities

The base number of dice for a skilled entry-level professional is baselined at 5 dice. With 5d and a target number of 15, the chance of success is roughly 75% (in actuality it is a bit over, but close enough). As outlined in this previous blog post, this falls into the probability range that I find is most perfect, where a competent, trained, healthy individual beginning their professional career should succeed on almost-routine tasks (I say almost, as if it were perfectly routine there’d be no need to roll a test!) most times. And even in those instances where they fail their roll, rarely will it be too disastrous of a setback (especially if the player chooses to succeed at cost, which is further explained below).

By adjusting the dice pool up and down in increments of ½ dice (a d3) allows for roughly this progression of success chances:

3d | 10% |

3½d | 25% |

4d | 50% (actual is 45%) |

4½d | 66% |

5d | 75% |

5½d | 90% |

6d | 95% |

In graph form, it looks like this (courtesy of anydice.com):

In play, it is easy to remember that 3½d to 5d forms the middle ground of success probabilities. Anything less than 3½d is super unlikely to succeed, and anything over 5d is pretty much guaranteed to succeed.

Taken together, everything comes together nicely:

- A nice round target number that is easy to remember.
- An easily graspable number of dice that counts as “competent”.
- Enough dice to let beginning characters succeed despite modifiers while also tempting the players with extra actions.
- And an intuitively graspable notion of the chances of success.